It looks like the Republican primary nomination will come down to the very last day of voting on June 7th, with the main question being whether or not Donald Trump can secure all 1,237 delegates needed to successfully clinch the nomination before the Republican National Convention.
He is in California right now where he has to put the most work in, with 53 congressional districts that each award three delegates. So if Donald Trump is sitting at 1,149 delegates, he will need to win the entire state, and at least 25 congressional districts.
Given his unwelcome response in both San Francisco and Los Angeles, this will be quite hard for him to do. It is going to be one wild night in the history of Republican Primary races.
All of these factors make it quite hard to predict accurately how Donald Trump will fare. A Field Poll released Thursday only confirmed how hard it will be to predict the future success of Trump.
In the survey, Trump leads Ted Cruz 39-32, just 7 percentage points which prevent any cushion for either primary hopeful. The split differs greatly by each demographic group and region. That is an important detail for the congressional district tabulation.
Here is a breakdown of how the three Republican candidates are faring:
Key points about all three republican primary candidates:
- Trump is much more successful among male voters than female.
- Cruz leads the Latino vote by a narrow margin.
- Kasich is known to have a competitive edge in San Francisco.
If Kasich continues to campaign until June then he would aid the anti-Trump group by preventing the billionaire from locking in allÂ 1,237 delegates needed. It’s likely that Cruz will run heavily against Trump in Los Angeles and in the agricultural Central Valley, and Kasich against Trump in the Bay Area. Both the Bay Area and Los Angeles have a lot of congressional districts, which means that the results could be awfully similar to those in Wisconsin. Meaning that even if Trump wins in many areas across California, he will fail to succeed in densely populated areas, which hold the most congressional seats.
Cruz’s popularity among California Republicans has diminished slightly, with more Republicans now voicing that they wouldn’t like to see Cruz win the nomination and more voters view the Texas senator in a negative light. Because Trump is likely to need to win the state to power past Cruz in as many congressional districts as can be, it’s encouraging news for him.
Overall, the poll is not what Trump and his supporters would have liked to see (that is if they actually paid attention to the intricacies of targeting and winning elections). The race has barely started, and over the next two months you can expect Cruz to begin visiting very specifically chosen districts in Los Angeles County and the Central Valley to do everything he can to strip Trump of as many districts as possible.
Kasich’s support will be seen in the form of major TV ad buys in San Jose and San Francisco, where his moderate stance and pro-big business stance will give him an edge. You can expect Trump to show up across the entire state, where he hopefully will be met by protests that further frustrate him and force him to know where all the back-door entrances are to each of his events… especially after what happened in San Francisco.